Congressman Mark Foley (R) is in some ways a good candidate for the Florida U.S. Senate seat that may be vacated by presidential candidate Bob Graham. Foley has been in Congress for nine years and has earned his spurs—he’s frequently on national television or otherwise in the news. His voting record is sufficiently conservative to appeal to Florida Republicans, even though he’s been liberal on some issues, such as family planning and public broadcasting. Moreover, he has aggressively pursued the Republican Senate nomination: The first-quarter Federal Election Commission reports show he already has $2,337,000 in his campaign kitty, compared to $334,000 for former U.S. Rep. Bill McCollum (R), his only announced opponent.

And 36 state representatives recently endorsed Foley’s candidacy.

There’s only one fly in the ointment. Recently, New Times, an alternative weekly in Ft. Lauderdale, published a column alleging that Foley is gay. Foley himself has never said he is gay and generally avoids the topic. A check with his Washington office found no change in that policy. The rumor mill, however, has circulated the story for several years.

So far, although the gay press has picked up the New Times story, not a single mainstream newspaper in Florida has. If Florida’s newspapers continue to avoid the story, Foley may win the primary and the election. After all, in 2002 in nearby South Carolina, Republican Congressman Lindsey Graham won his Senate race despite repeated attempts by Democrats in the state to suggest he was gay. But the only "evidence" that Graham was not a red-blooded heterosexual was that he was 46 and had never married. His voting record was Christian conservative all the way, the mainstream press avoided the "story," and the Congressman won with 55 percent of the vote.

If the Foley story does make the Florida papers, however, it would probably guarantee that he doesn’t get past the primary. The case made by New Times for Foley being gay is far from airtight, but it’s a bit more substantial than the rumors about Graham. Foley, 48, is not just unmarried; several of his friends and former friends who are openly gay told the paper that Foley has presented himself socially as gay. And Foley has a record on gay issues that is uncharacteristically high for a conservative—the Human Rights Campaign gave him a score of 83 in the last Congress.

While Florida is more New South than Deep South, the state has lots of conservative voters who are unlikely to support even an "alleged homosexual." That may well be the reason that Congressman Dave Weldon (R), a social conservative and a favorite of pro-lifers, is talking about entering the race. Potentially more worrisome for Foley, the state’s GOP big dogs are beginning to get antsy over the "Is Foley gay?" rumors and are searching for a major name without his baggage to enter the race. In any case, Foley—whether straight, gay, or questioning—is going to need extraordinary political skills to maneuver his ambitions through the minefield he now faces.