With the U.S. Senate closely divided and the White House recruiting viable Republican contenders across the country to keep the Democrats from regaining control, Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) has been high on the list of potentially vulnerable incumbents. A strong supporter of the gay community—Murray scored 100 in the last Human Rights Campaign (HRC) legislative ratings—the two-term liberal lawmaker’s defeat would be a major loss for us, especially if she were replaced by a conservative GOPer with an antigay rating.

Murray, however, is looking stronger by the minute. The first good news for her re-election prospects was that Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn (R) decided not to oppose her. Had Dunn challenged Murray, she would have been a formidable foe. For starters, Dunn, as a woman, could attack Murray without looking like a bully. Moreover, Dunn’s voting record on social issues is moderate. She is pro-choice and overall rates 52 percent conservative, 47 percent liberal on social issues, according to the National Journal—a record that would appeal to many Northwest voters. (Dunn’s moderation, however, does not extend to gay issues: She only scored 17 percent with HRC.)

Now the GOP’s best hope is Congressman George Nethercutt, the giant-killer who knocked off Speaker of the House Tom Foley (D) in the 1994 Republican tsunami. Nethercutt looks like he’s also having second thoughts about the race, but if he runs, his strong conservatism would make him a weaker candidate than Dunn would have been. Also, he’s from Eastern Washington, which is a less populated part of the state. For gay voters, a Nethercutt candidacy would produce an especially clear choice: He rated a lousy zero on the HRC scorecard.

This is not to say that Nethercutt would be a pushover for Murray. On the contrary, he does have a lot of name ID in the state for beating Foley and probably would have a pot full of money to mount a high-powered campaign. Nethercutt had only $82,000 on hand as of March 31—hardly enough to jump-start a campaign—but he cites $12 million as the amount he would expect to raise to run against Murray. With control of the Senate in the balance, the national GOP could make sure he raises that amount.

While Nethercutt is conservative, he is quirky enough to present himself as a GOP maverick. For example, he led a battle to relax trade restrictions with Cuba, essentially to help agricultural exports from his district. Moreover, he would be sure to attack Murray for her statement in December 2002 contrasting Osama bin Laden’s building of schools, day-care centers, and health-care facilities in the Middle East with Americans "just being the people who are going to bomb in Iraq and go to Afghanistan."