LETTERS From CAMP Rehoboth |
Capital Letters |
by Hastings Wyman |
Whose "Lifestyle" Is It Anyway? There's more evidence that political queer-baiting won't fly even with conservative voters. In Montana, Republican Congressman Rick Hill got more than he bargained for when he attacked his opponent, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Nancy Keenan, for her "lifestyle" (she's single). For starters, Montana newspapers have pummeled the homophobic Hill (who rates a zero on the Human Rights Campaign's scorecard) for raising such issues, particularly since he divorced his wife of many years to marry a woman whom the Great Falls Tribune described asquel horreur"a cocktail waitress." Moreover, Hill's critics have loosened their purse strings, and Democrat Keenan has raised $145,000 in the first half of the year, a hefty sum in sparsely populated Montana and an indication that Hill's thinly veiledbut widely publicized attack on her has backfired. In addition to Keenan's successful fundraising, polling data suggest that Hill isn't valued in the Treasure State. In a recent survey taken for the Democrats, single-woman Keenan gets a high job-approval rating: 50 percent positive, 29 percent negative. Married-man Hill, however, gets a negative rating from 50 percent of those polled, a positive rating from only 36 percent. At press time, word is out that Hill has pulled out of the race to keep his seat. Pro-Gay Senator in Potentially Tight Race Sen. Jeff Bingaman, Democrat of New Mexico, will be seeking reelection to a fourth term next year. He has been a good friend of the gay community, scoring 83 percent in the Human Rights Campaign's legislative rating system. Like Democrats everywhere in 1994, Bingaman had a tough time and won reelection by a so-so 54 percent. Since then the two parties' fortunes have been more even-steven, and at this point, insiders rate Bingaman the earlybut not solid favorite. In 2000, Bingaman could get a spirited challenge from former U.S. Rep. Bill Redmond, a fundamentalist Christian minister who won a special election to Congress in 1997 but lost his seat in '98. Redmond has already formed an exploratory committee to raise money and conduct polling. During his brief tenure in the House, he rated a meager 25 percent on HRC's scorecard. There are other Republicans besides Redmond who might run. The GOP's 800-pound gorilla would be the twice-elected Gov. Gary Johnson. Although some party insiders have encouraged Johnson to challenge Bingaman, he has so far shown little inclination to do so. Two other potential contenders are state GOP chairman John Dendahl and conservative rancher Colin McMillan, who got 46 percent against Bingaman in 1994. Independent polls have shown that Bingaman is not as popular as his fellow New Mexican, Sen. Pete Domenici, a Republican. And a GOP-sponsored poll showed only about one-third of voters want to reelect Bingaman, while 43 percent would consider another candidate. But the GOP didn't release the poll results when Redmond is pitted against Bingaman, suggesting a substantial lead for the Democratic incumbent. Moreover, next year's presidential contest could spill over into the Senate race. New Mexico is flanked on the east by Texas, home of Gov. George W. Bush, and on the west by Arizona, home of Sen. John McCain. Either man on the Republican ticket would play well here. If New Mexico's Bill Richardson, the Clinton Administration's Hispanic secretary of energy, ends up in the V.P. slot on the Democratic side, Bingaman would benefit - but given the Chinese theft of nuclear secrets on Richardson's watch, this is a long-shot. Vermont Gay Politico Building War Chest Money talks, and the $221,000 that openly gay state Auditor Ed Flanagan, a Democrat, has raised in the first half of 1999 says he will be a serious player in Vermont politics next year. While 220 grand wouldn't buy a night of TV spots in New York or California, it is serious green in the Green Mountain State and more than Vermont's 1994 Democratic nominee for the Senate raised in the entire campaign. The Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund, which doesn't endorse sacrificial lambs, has already announced its support of Flanagan and helped him raise funds. And Roll Call, the non-partisan Capitol Hill weekly, headlined its story on the openly gay candidate's financial report: "Flanagan Shows Fundraising Promise." But whether Flanagan will end up challenging Republican U.S. Sen. Jim Jeffords or running for an open seat in Congress depends on what Congressman Bernard Sanders, an Independent who bills himself as a socialist, decides to do. If Sanders keeps put, Flanagan will stay in the Senate race and despite his fundraising prowessremain a definite underdog against incumbent Jeffords. Another Democrat, state Sen. Jan Backus, who got 41 percent of the vote against Jeffords in 1994, is also seeking the Democratic nomination, but she has raised only $11,000. Jeffords is not very vulnerable. For starters, he has raised $531,000 this year. Moreover, unlike most Republicans, he presents a very small target for gay criticshe is the lead co-sponsor of the Employment Non-Discrimination Act in the Senate and rates a perfect 100 percent on the Human Rights Campaign's legislative scorecard. Indeed, a Flanagan-Jeffords race would present the HRC with a not unfamiliar problemwhether to back a lawmaker who has supported the gay community or try to elect one of our own to high office. Winnie Stachelberg, HRC's political director, says the nation's major gay political group "would seek community input from Vermont" before making an endorsement (this represents a response on the part of HRC to criticism from many New York gays over the group's endorsement of Republican Al D'Amato in the 1998 Senate campaign). She also notes HRC's board could even - as it did in 1996 in the Long Beach, Calif., congressional race between moderate GOPer Steve Horn and openly gay Democrat Rick Zburmake a joint endorsement. If Sanders opts for the Senate race, then Flanagan will run for Sanders's open congressional seat, where - not facing an incumbenthe would have a much better shot. Granted Vermont is liberal, but can an openly gay candidate win a major race here? Sam Hemingway, political reporter for the state's major daily, the Burlington Free Press, notes that voters have had no problem with Flanagan in his past campaigns for state auditor, where he has acknowledged his homosexuality but stressed his fiscal accomplishments. But in a race for the more visible congressional or U.S. Senate seat, his gay identity could be a factor. Hemingway believes a lot depends on what the Vermont Supreme Court does on the same-sex marriage case now pending before it. If the court preserves marriage for heterosexuals only, it will be dog bites man, and Flanagan's sexual orientation isn't likely to draw much attention. However, if the court OKs same-gender matrimony, "the gay issue could be a wild card," Hemingway says, whether Flanagan runs for senator or congressman. In any case, Flanagan continues to make history and is likely to do us proud. Stay tuned. Other War Chests Growing, Too U.S. Rep Tammy Baldwin, a Wisconsin Democrat, raised $381,000 in campaign funds in the first half of this year and has $386,000 already on hand for an election still some 15 months away. Such a flush campaign treasury this early is a good sign that the openly lesbian congresswoman will be in good shape at a time when congressional incumbents are most vulnerablewhen they are freshmen. So far, one Republican has announced against Baldwin, and several others are considering the race. Barney Frank, the outspoken gay Democratic congressman from Massachusetts, was back at his desk less than a week after his recent heart by-pass surgery and is also in good shape financially. By June 30, Frank had raised $125,00 and had $190,000 on hand, which will help keep him secure in a district where he had no opposition in 1998 and got 72 percent of the vote in 1996. Jim Kolbe, the gay Republican from Arizona, raised $166,000 and has $171,000 on hand for next year. While that's respectable, he'll need a half-million or more for next year's campaignlast year, he won with a slim 52 percent share of the vote and Democrats will be making a major effort against him. Hastings Wyman has been a D.C. insider for more than three decades. He publishes Southern Political Report, a nonpartisan biweekly political newsletter. He can be reached in care of LETTERS from CAMP Rehoboth or at HwymanSPR@aol.com. |
LETTERS From CAMP Rehoboth, Vol. 9, No. 11, Aug. 13, 1999 |