LETTERS From CAMP Rehoboth |
CAPITAL Letters |
by Hastings Wyman |
Elections a Mixed Bag for Gays There were both dark clouds and rays of sunshine in the election returns. In the state that gays and lesbians were watching intently, Vermont, Gov. Howard Dean (D), targeted by the conservatives for supporting civil unions, won with 51 percent, barely a majority. He beat the 39 percent for Ruth Dwyer (R), who ran on an anti-civil unions platform, and the 10 percent for Anthony Pollina, a Progressive who also supported civil unions. Vermont law requires the winner of the governor's race to get a majority vote, or else the state House of Representatives makes the final decision. The Republicans did win control of Vermont's House of Representatives, but failed to take the Senate. Civil unions appear safe. Gay incumbents, like most of their straight counterparts, were re-elected. Incumbent U.S. Representatives Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) was re-elected by a too-close-for-comfort 51 percent. Jim Kolbe (R-Ariz.), who had a close race (52 percent) in 1998, won with a hefty 60 percent. And Barney Frank (D-Mass.) got an overwhelming 74 percent of his district's vote. However, gay congressional challengers lost across the board. The impressive Ed Flanagan (D) failed in his U.S. Senate bid in Vermont, garnering only one vote in four against GOP moderate Jim Jeffords. In California, lesbian Gerrie Schipske (D) ran a very close race47 percent against moderate Steve Horn (R) and will be a prime prospect for the 2002 election. Also in the Golden State, Ron Oden (D) got a not-too-shabby 38 percent against heavy favorite Mary Bono (R). And in Pennsylvania, Ron Strouse (D) got 40 percent against moderate Jim Greenwood (R). Given the strong trend in favor of incumbents, the losses by gay candidates are not too discouraging. More significant is that the gay politicos got a substantial minority of the vote. You'll see more, not less, of them in the future. In other results, Republicans kept control of the House of Representatives, but their Senate majority was reduced and, though it's too soon to tell, we could end up with an evenly divided Upper Chamber. Three hard-right Republican senators who voted against virtually every gay-friendly proposal that came up lost their re-election bids. Minnesota's Rod Grams will be replaced by Mark Dayton (D), a long-time supporter of our community. Missouri's arch-conservative John Ashcroft (R) lost to Mel Carnahan (D), who died in a plane crash in October. Carnahan's widow, Jean, is expected to be chosen to take her husband's seat. And in Michigan, Debbie Stabenow (D) won a narrow victory over Spence Abraham (R). All three of the winners are likely to be much more hospitable to pro-gay proposalsENDA, hate crimes, what-have-youthan the lawmakers they defeated. This means that these gay-friendly bills, which already commanded a Senate majority, should be even stronger in the next Congress. Moreover, two other GOPers who have been consistent opponents of gay rights issues won by unexpectedly narrow marginsMontana's Conrad Burns eked out a 51 percent to 48 percent victory, and Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum won by a not-so-hot 53 percent to 46 percent. Let us hope their close calls will moderate their views. Other noteworthy Senate races include Virginia, where incumbent Chuck Robb (D), a stalwart ally of gay people, lost to former Gov. George Allen (R). At one point Allen made overtures to gay voters, endorsing hate crimes legislation, but by campaign's end, he was blasting Robb for having "Vermont values" by opposing the anti-gay Defense of Marriage Act. In Nevada, it is not clear what John Ensign's (R) victory will mean. On the one hand, he's a member of the conservative Christian Promise Keepers. On the other, when he represented Las Vegas in Congress, he often voted for pro-gay proposals. In New York, we gained a more consistent, more stalwart, and certainly more visible ally when Hillary Clinton won the seat of retiring U.S. Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D). Also of interest, according to CNN's exit polls, 71 percent of gay and lesbian voters chose Democrat Al Gore, 25 percent picked Bushhigher than most estimatesand 4 percent voted for the Green Party's Ralph Nader. Some 4 percent of voters identified themselves as gay or lesbian in CNN's exit polls. ABC's exit polls revealed almost identical numbers. The results of three of four state ballot questions did not go well for gay people. There are two lessons here. First, the anti-gay forces know how to get measures on the ballot that they can sell to the public. They pick "gay marriage," for example, which has little public support, not job discrimination, which doesn't. Secondly, the gay groups, state and national, have not found a persuasive way to make the gay case to the non-gay public. Maine. When the legislature added sexual orientation to the state's civil rights bill for gay people, it required the measure to be approved by the voters. The measure lost 51 percent to 49 percent, the second time such a bill has been turned down by the state's voters. Nebraska. A ballot initiative passed by 70 percent to 30 percent that not only amended the state constitution to limit marriage to heterosexual couples, but also banned state recognition of domestic partnerships. Nevada. Another state constitutional ban on state recognition of same-sex marriage passed by 70 percent to 30 percent. Oregon. This is Oregon's third anti-gay initiative since 1992. This one"The Student Protection Act" bans public schools from teaching about homosexuality in any manner that "sanctions, encourages, or promotes such behaviors." Once again, sanity appears to have prevailed, albeit narrowlyvoters rejected the measure 51 percent to 49 percent. Winning the Voters' Hand in Marriage A consensus is forming among gay leaders that it may be more effective to support same-sex marriage outright when fighting anti-gay marriage voter initiatives. In past battles on the issue, the gay side has hired consultants who tested messages in focus groups and polls and came up with a variety of themessuch as "Vote 'no' to protect everyone's civil rights"that avoided an out-and-out defense of same-sex unions. At the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force's (NGLTF) Creating Change conference in Atlanta Nov. 9-13, a workshop on voter initiatives on same-sex marriage ended with the conclusion that this old method for devising a campaign strategy is a loser. So in the next battlesuch as in the 2002 re-vote of the recently passed anti-gay marriage referendum in Nevada (as required by state law)don't be surprised if you see a full frontal advocacy of gay marriage. Such a shift in strategy may or may not work, but with five statewide losses on this issuethis year in Nevada and Nebraska and previously in Alaska, California, and Hawaiia change is certainly in order. The NGLTF panelists also said to start earlydon't wait until the heat of the campaign season. Although marriage wasn't the issue in this year's disappointing loss in Maine, where a civil rights measure that would have included sexual orientation was defeated, several participants noted that overconfidence led to a late start by the pro-gay side in the Pine Tree State. Participants in the "Creating Change" discussion included: Lorri Jean, a key figure in the fight against California's Knight Initiative; the Human Rights Campaign's David Smith, who ran the Hawaii effort; Evan Wolfson, who directs the Lambda Legal Defense and Education Fund's Marriage Project; Allison Mendel, who led the fight in Alaska; and NGLTF's Director of Training Dave Fleischer. Keeping Gays Together In many cities throughout the country, there's a gay ghettoOak Lawn in Dallas, the French Quarter in New Orleans, Dupont Circle in Washington, D. C., Chelsea in New York City, the Castro in San Francisco, West Hollywood in Los Angeles, etc. The consensus at a Creating Change workshop on redistricting was that, with some advance planning to identify the boundaries of these enclaves, coupled with some effective lobbying and coalition-building, lines can be drawn that will corral gay voters into the same congressional, legislative, and city council districts. This would create more jurisdictions amenable to electing openly gay lawmakers. Dividing these gay voters into several districts might result in the election of more gay-friendly straights. However, there's persuasive evidence that having even one openly gay member of a state legislature or city council makes it more open to passing civil rights protections, domestic partnership programs, and other policies that will help lesbians and gay men. NGLTF Policy Institute Director Sean Cahill has produced an excellent draft report on redistricting and its impact on the gay community (212-604-9830, www.ngltf.org). Moreover, look for national gay groupsthe Task Force, the Human Rights Campaign, and the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund for startersand many state organizations to work together on this once-in-a-decade opportunity. Hastings Wyman publishes Southern Political Report, a nonpartisan biweekly political newsletter. He can be reached care of Letters from CAMP Rehoboth or at HWymanSPR@aol.com. |
LETTERS From CAMP Rehoboth, Vol. 10, No. 15, Nov. 22, 2000. |